Titus’s Final Four Preview

The most entertaining tournament since at least last year’s tournament is down to its last three games. You can choose any number of lenses through which to view this year’s Final Four. Florida, the no. 1 overall seed, remains alive along with its biggest rival (Kentucky) and the only two teams that have beaten the Gators this season. Of the remaining teams, some rely on upperclassmen (Florida and Wisconsin), one relies on freshmen (Kentucky), and one relies on Shabazz Napier (UConn). There’s a coach making his first Final Four appearance after a long career (Bo Ryan), a coach making his first Final Four appearance in the first season he was eligible to do so (Kevin Ollie), and two guys who have already won national titles (Billy Donovan and John Calipari). There are two teams that gave walk-ons significant minutes this season (Kentucky and Florida), one team that looks like a bunch of walk-ons (Wisconsin), and UConn (UConn). There’s so much going on in this, the most important weekend in college basketball, that the only way to tackle it is to go through each team and break down its narrative as it enters the Final Four, what each narrative will become if each team wins the national title, and what each’s worst-case scenario looks like. Connecticut The narrative: UConn is the most underrated team in America. After a disappointing national title defense in 2012, UConn got slapped with a postseason ban for 2013 because of its bad Academic Progress Rate, prompting Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith to transfer. With Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond going pro after 2012, last season figured to be a rebuilding year for the Huskies. Instead, Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright led the Huskies to a better season than they had the year before, only nobody really seemed to notice or care because UConn couldn’t play in the NCAA tournament. With their top six scorers, including Napier and Boatright, returning, I expect the Huskies to surprise some people. I wrote that in my AAC preview, and as much as I’d like to brag about it, the truth is that I jumped off the UConn bandwagon soon after I predicted the team would succeed. Things started off great — the Huskies began the season 9-0 and peaked at no. 10 in the AP poll. But then an unheralded Stanford team brought UConn crashing back to earth in mid-December. Two weeks later, UConn lost back-to-back games at Houston and SMU, and I became convinced that just making the NCAA tournament would be a struggle for the Huskies. It was too early to panic, but I started questioning this UConn team anyway. Is Kevin Ollie the right man for the job? Jim Calhoun had impossible shoes to fill and Ollie, a former UConn player, would be given plenty of time to prove himself. But if Ollie couldn’t get a team full of upperclassmen led by a stud like Shabazz Napier to the tournament, how the hell would he ever be able to compete for national titles? And if UConn were mediocre on a national level, what would happen to the AAC when Louisville left for the ACC? While we’re asking questions, has anyone else noticed that Tyler Olander started as a freshman for a national championship team but as a senior plays fewer minutes than he did as a freshman? As the season progressed, it became clear UConn would make the tournament, but that it would make a deep run only if Napier could morph into Kemba Walker and carry the team like Kemba did in 2011. There were signs Napier could do it — his 27 points and complete takeover of crunch time against Indiana; his 26 points and game winner to beat Florida; his 34 points against Memphis. But there were also games like the regular-season finale versus Louisville, when Napier went 2-for-13 with six turnovers, UConn lost by 33 points, and Huskies fans were left hating themselves for thinking Napier could ever be Kemba. Napier hasn’t quite finished his Kemba act, but he’s done more than enough to justify the comparisons. How a national title would change the narrative: Ollie, Napier, and the American Athletic Conference all have a lot riding on the outcome of this Final Four. Let’s start with Ollie. Kevin Ollie: UConn and Ollie have exceeded expectations just by making the Final Four, so Ollie is in good shape no matter what happens. Even if Florida beats UConn by 30 on Saturday, Ollie will be given at least a five-year grace period before anybody questions his job status again. But if he can win a national title in his very first season of postseason eligibility? That’s approaching legendary status. Should Ollie win a national championship, it would obviously do wonders for his career and the UConn program as a whole. But an equally significant subplot is that he would be the first black head coach since Tubby Smith in 1998 to win a national title, and just the fourth ever (John Thompson in 1984 and Nolan Richardson in 1994 are the others). Given that black athletes dominate elite-level basketball, you’d expect more former players to find success as coaches. But chances are you probably can’t even name 10 black Division I coaches off the top of your head. The goal is to get to a point where saying things like “he’s the first black coach since …” stops being a big deal. But first this sort of thing needs to start happening more frequently, which is why Ollie cutting down the nets on Monday would be a step in the right direction. Shabazz Napier: With two Final Four appearances, a national title, almost 2,000 career points, and his willingness to stick with UConn during a coaching transition and NCAA sanctions, Napier has already cemented his legacy in Storrs. But that doesn’t mean he can’t add to his myth. If UConn wins it all, Napier could end up proving — all by himself — that reincarnation is real. The 2014 UConn team would be the rebirth of the 2011 team, with Napier being the second coming of Kemba Walker and Tyler Olander being the second coming of Tyler Olander. Wait, does this mean that college basketball fans are about to suffer through another unwatchable national title game?1 This UConn team is more balanced than the 2011 team, which was just Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi every now and then, and a dash of some freshman named Shabazz. Lamb played great throughout the 2011 tourney, but he was overshadowed by Kemba in every game. The same can’t be said about this team, since Shabazz was kind enough to let DeAndre Daniels carry the Huskies against Iowa State. But for UConn to beat Florida and then Wisconsin or Kentucky, Shabazz will need to pull off two Herculean performances. If he can’t do it, UConn fans will still remember him fondly. But if he can, get ready to see a 10,000 percent increase in New England babies named Shabazz. The American Athletic Conference: When the old Big East essentially split into the American and the new Big East, the college basketball world seemed to tag them as “power conferences” without giving it much thought. Given the landscape of college basketball, though, it’s possible that in five years both conferences could have this reputation called into question, especially with Louisville headed to the ACC and the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 on the rise. A national title for the American in its first year of existence, however, would make a pretty convincing case that the conference deserves its “power” label. Worst-case scenario: Napier rolls his ankle early in Saturday’s game. Ryan Boatright decides that Napier’s absence means it’s his time to shine, which leads to Boatright going 5-for-24 from the field. Daniels pops a hernia trying to move Patric Young off the block. Niels Giffey’s cold shooting continues. Scottie Wilbekin almost puts up a triple-double. Michael Frazier hits seven 3s. UConn loses by 35. Ollie realizes how terrible his life will be without Napier and takes an NBA head coaching job in the offseason, three days after UConn announces that the XL Center (and not Gampel Pavilion) will be the permanent home for UConn basketball next season.